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Tree loss is increasing rapidly due to drought- and heat-related mortality and intensifying fire activity. Consequently, the fate of many forests depends on the ability of juvenile trees to withstand heightened climate and disturbance anomalies. Extreme climatic events, such as droughts and heatwaves, are increasing in frequency and severity, and trees in mountainous regions must contend with these landscape-level climate episodes. Recent research focuses on how mortality of individual tree species may be driven by drought and heatwaves, but how juvenile mortality under these conditions would vary among species spanning an elevational gradient—given concurrent variation in climate, ecohydrology, and physiology–remains unclear. We address this knowledge gap by implementing a growth chamber study, imposing extreme drought with and without a compounding heatwave, for juveniles of five species that span a forested life zones in the Southwestern United States. Overall, the length of a progressive drought required to trigger mortality differed by up to 20 weeks among species. Inclusion of a heatwave hastened mean time to mortality for all species by about 1 week. Lower-elevation species that grow in warmer ambient conditions died earlier (Pinus ponderosain 10 weeks,Pinus edulisin 14 weeks) than did higher-elevation species from cooler ambient conditions (Picea engelmanniiandPseudotsuga menziesiiin 19 weeks, andPinus flexilisin 30 weeks). When exposed to a heatwave in conjunction with drought, mortality advanced significantly only for species from cooler ambient conditions (Pinus flexilis: 2.7 weeks earlier;Pseudotsuga menziesii: 2.0 weeks earlier). Cooler ambient temperatures may have buffered against moisture loss during drought, resulting in longer survival of higher-elevation species despite expected drought tolerance of lower-elevation species due to tree physiology. Our study suggests that droughts will play a leading role in juvenile tree mortality and will most directly impact species at warmer climate thresholds, with heatwaves in tandem with drought potentially exacerbating mortality especially of high elevation species. These responses are relevant for assessing the potential success of both natural and managed reforestation, as differential juvenile survival following episodic extreme events will determine future landscape-scale vegetation trajectories under changing climate. 

Abstract Changing disturbance regimes and climate can overcome forest ecosystem resilience. Following high-severity fire, forest recovery may be compromised by lack of tree seed sources, warmer and drier postfire climate, or short-interval reburning. A potential outcome of the loss of resilience is the conversion of the prefire forest to a different forest type or nonforest vegetation. Conversion implies major, extensive, and enduring changes in dominant species, life forms, or functions, with impacts on ecosystem services. In the present article, we synthesize a growing body of evidence of fire-driven conversion and our understanding of its causes across western North America. We assess our capacity to predict conversion and highlight important uncertainties. Increasing forest vulnerability to changing fire activity and climate compels shifts in management approaches, and we propose key themes for applied research coproduced by scientists and managers to support decision-making in an era when the prefire forest may not return. 

Summary Seasonal dynamics in the vertical distribution of leaf area index (LAI) may impact the seasonality of forest productivity in Amazonian forests. However, until recently, fine‐scale observations critical to revealing ecological mechanisms underlying these changes have been lacking.To investigate fine‐scale variation in leaf area with seasonality and drought we conducted monthly ground‐based LiDAR surveys over 4 yr at an Amazon forest site. We analysed temporal changes in vertically structuredLAIalong axes of both canopy height and light environments.Upper canopyLAIincreased during the dry season, whereas lower canopyLAIdecreased. The low canopy decrease was driven by highly illuminated leaves of smaller trees in gaps. By contrast, understoryLAIincreased concurrently with the upper canopy. Hence, tree phenological strategies were stratified by height and light environments. Trends were amplified during a 2015–2016 severe El Niño drought.Leaf area low in the canopy exhibited behaviour consistent with water limitation. Leaf loss from short trees in high light during drought may be associated with strategies to tolerate limited access to deep soil water and stressful leaf environments. Vertically and environmentally structured phenological processes suggest a critical role of canopy structural heterogeneity in seasonal changes in Amazon ecosystem function.